Federal Relations Update: Election 2018 No Images? Click here November 7, 2018 A Federal Relations Post-Election UpdateDemocrats Reclaim House; Republicans Increase Senate MajorityThe 2018 midterm elections are finally over, and divided government returns to Washington as the balance of power shifts left. There are still a number of races that are too-close-to-call, recounts yet-to-occur, and a Senate run-off in Mississippi, but for all intents and purposes, it’s done. Democrats will rule the House come January, as they won control of the chamber and reclaimed the majority by flipping at least 26 seats (they lead in 9 that have yet to be called).
Republicans did keep control of the Senate, picking up two seats as of this morning. They now have 52 seats (including Mississippi) with two races (Arizona and Florida) still to be decided. Looking ahead to the new Congress convening in January 2019, the partisan split in the House and Senate is sure to continue bitter battles as lawmakers from both parties write bills to provide government funding and raise the debt limit. Expect partisan struggles to continue and big legislative accomplishments to be elusive. Both parties will seek to position themselves for the 2020 presidential campaign that is now unofficially underway. As strange as the 2018 campaign was, in the end, it turned out to be rather conventional. We know that the president’s party almost always loses House seats—often a lot of seats—during the first mid-term elections, and presidents with subpar approval ratings lose far more seats than popular ones. While our economy is strong, it does not always portend well enough to offset other disadvantages for the president’s party. The generic congressional ballot is a reliable predictor of mid-term outcomes, and the Real Clear Politics 2018 generic congressional vote average was +7.3 percent for the Democrats. Wisconsin Representatives and Committee AssignmentsSince Republicans lost control of the House, some of Wisconsin’s Republican congressmen may lose a committee assignment. At the start of every new Congress, party leaders negotiate the size of committees, and they also determine the ratio of majority party members to minority party members. In the House, majority members are represented on committees by ratios larger than their control of the chamber; in the Senate the ratios more closely approximate each party’s overall strength in the chamber. For Wisconsin Democrats, Rep. Mark Pocan will continue to serve on the House Appropriations Committee, where he is a powerful advocate for UW-Madison, and Rep. Ron Kind may chair a subcommittee on the Ways & Means Committee in the new Congress. Since these committees are exclusive, Reps. Pocan and Kind will not receive another committee assignment. However, Rep. Gwen Moore, who serves on the Financial Services Committee, is likely to be added to another standing committee. For Wisconsin Republicans, Rep. Glenn Grothman currently serves on three committees, but he is very likely to lose a committee assignment when the new Congress convenes. He is currently on the Budget Committee, the Oversight and Government Reform Committee and the Education and the Workforce Committee. Likewise, Rep. Mike Gallagher also serves on three committees and is likely to lose a committee assignment next year. Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner and Sean Duffy will lose their subcommittee chairmanships on the Judiciary and Financial Services Committees, respectively. Congressman-elect Bryan Steil may learn his committee assignment(s) next month. Members will be formally appointed to congressional committees sometime in January. While the parties may decide on committee assignments next month, the 116th Congress will not formally constitute the committees until January. UW Regent Bryan Steil Wins Bid to Succeed Paul Ryan in CongressBryan Steil, an attorney who serves as a member of the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents, defeated ironworker Randy Bryce to succeed his former boss, Speaker Paul Ryan, in Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district. The 37-year-old Janesville native carried the district that President Trump won by 10 points in 2016. Former UW–Madison Chancellor Donna Shalala Flips House Seat for DemocratsFormer University of Wisconsin-Madison Chancellor Donna Shalala won her bid to serve in Congress. Shalala, a Democrat, will represent a congressional seat in the Miami area. She defeated Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban-American who has served as a Spanish-language TV news anchor for decades, in a hotly-contested race. With her win, the 77-year-old Shalala will become the 2nd oldest freshman in U.S. House of Representatives' history.Lame Duck OutlookLast night’s election results will cast a long shadow over the lame duck session, which begins on Tuesday. A divided 116th Congress likely means a stalemate on proposals that hold partisan appeal, but it also means that getting basic housekeeping work done will become an even bigger lift. Those considerations will weigh heavily on members during the lame duck session. While House Democrats hold little power during the lame duck session, Senate Democrats can block passage of legislation. Congressional Democrats thus will have to decide which course better serves their interests. They can use the power of a Senate minority to postpone the resolution of key issues until next year when they run the House, or they can clear the decks of as many housekeeping matters as possible over the next several weeks, freeing them up to pursue a fresh legislative agenda in the new year. The top priority for the lame duck Congress will be passing government funding bills. The challenge this year is more manageable than in recent years since Congress has already enacted five of the 12 regular appropriations bills that together account for 75 percent of federal spending. In addition, the Senate already passed a four-bill “minibus” (Agriculture, Financial Services and General Government, Interior and Transportation/HUD) that is likely to be the first appropriations package out of the gate. The House and Senate still have work to do on the Commerce-Justice-Science, State Department-Foreign Operations and Homeland Security bills. We’ll soon learn whether Democrats prefer to complete the FY 2019 funding bills during the lame duck session or hold out to approve a short-term extension into early next year when they will have greater leverage to shape the remaining spending bills to their liking. Border wall—President Trump wants funding for a border wall and while the odds are not good, the next month is his best opportunity to get it. Republican congressional leaders may be willing to go to bat on the issue, but confronting Democrats over border wall financing could lead to a partial government shutdown. With the elections now in the rearview mirror and most of the federal government funded through next September already signed into law, Republicans might calculate that a partial shutdown would do them little political damage. However, on the flip side, having lost their House majority, Republicans may be in no mood for confrontation and might look to finish up funding bills so they can head home for the holidays. Farm bill—Congress has been working since the summer to reach agreement on a five- year extension of federal agriculture and nutrition programs. The House narrowly passed its version of the Farm Bill and the Senate adopted its version overwhelmingly. Conferees are trying to bridge numerous differences including House provisions that would make substantial changes in eligibility for assistance under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), as well as stricter for food stamp recipients. If a final agreement is not reached prior to the end of the lame duck session, Congress would almost certainly enact a temporary extension. With Democrats winning the House, prospects for passing a new Farm Bill may improve. Tax legislation—Republicans would like to pass expired tax provisions, technical corrections to the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA), a retirement savings package and a tax administration bill. However, following last night’s election results, these items will not be an easy lift. What may occur during the next month is another tax bill that would be a deal on retirement savings legislation to simplify rules and increase incentives for employers to provide retirement savings benefits to employees. This includes increasing incentives for individuals to contribute to Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). Don’t look for all these items to be considered during the lame duck session. Members who are retiring, and those who lost their elections, will grow increasingly restless as the calendar gets closer to the holidays. Senate Democrats will still have the power to block passage of non-essential election, i.e. legislation other than funding the government, and House Republicans may be demoralized by the elections and throw in the towel rather than extend the session. Leadership in the New CongressLast night’s elections put Democrats in control of the House, while leaving them in the Senate minority. Top Democratic leadership posts in both bodies are expected to remain relatively stable. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will remain the Senate Minority Leader and Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is expected to reprise her role as House Speaker.With the retirement of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), House Republicans must select a new leader. Current House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is likely to be the new Minority Leader, but following their poor showing at the polls last night, there is certain to be grumbling and a challenger to McCarthy will emerge. Just this morning. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who chairs the Freedom Caucus and is a UW-Madison graduate, announced his candidacy for House Minority Leader. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will continue as Majority Leader, but much of the leadership team will be reshuffled or replaced due to GOP Conference term limit rules. House and Senate Republicans will hold their leadership elections on November 14. The 116th CongressLooking ahead to the next two years, Democrats will exercise sweeping oversight of the Trump administration. Look for administration officials to regularly be called to testify on Capitol Hill. House Democrats are also going to use their subpoena powers in the majority. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos will be one of many prime oversight targets. Democrats will also look to make major changes to campaign and ethics laws, requiring disclosure of political donors and outlawing the gerrymandering of congressional districts. You can expect them to make an attempt to restore Voting Rights Act enforcement provisions. There may be an opportunity for the Democrats to make a deal with President Trump on infrastructure investment. With respect to health care, they are also likely to address the rising costs of prescription drugs and make improvements to the Affordable Care Act instead of attempting a move to a single-payer system. The country is as politically divided as ever. Many of the moves made in Congress the next two years will be made to bolster their party’s position headed into the 2020 presidential election. What to expect? Gridlock with a divided government is a safe bet. We remain hopeful the current discord we’ve experienced since the 21st century started changes someday, but don’t expect it to happen in the next two years. Key DatesAs always, if you have any questions or if you would like additional information, please feel free to contact either the director of Federal Relations, Mike Lenn, or the associate director, Carina Marquez. |